Working papers

Working papers (WP) present main results of economic research and analyses of Národná banka Slovenska. They contribute to expert discussion about current economic problems in the fields of monetary policy, economic and monetary union, fiscal policy, macroeconomic models, real convergence and financial stability. Analyses and results outside the scope of the working paper series are published in the form of policy papers (PP) or occasional papers (OP). The research is usually conducted by Research Department staff, but contributions from other NBS departments or external co-authors are encouraged.

If you wish to receive our new papers, please email us at research[at]


Juraj Hucek, Alexander Karsay, Marian Vavra
OP 1/2015: Short-term Forecasting of Real GDP Using Monthly Data
Keywords:factor models, principal components, bridge equations, short-term forecasting, GDP

Marian Vavra
WP 5/2015: Test For Forecast Evaluations
Keywords: Forecast evaluation; Diebold-Mariano test; Sieve bootstrap

Martin Feldkircher, Florian Huber, Josef Schreiner, Marcel Tirpák, Peter Tóth, Julia Wörz 
WP 4/2015: Small-scale nowcasting models of GDP for selected CESEE countries
Keywords: Nowcasting, bridge equations, dynamic factor models, Bayesian model averaging,Central-, Eastern- and South-Eastern Europe

Teresa Messner, Tibor Zavadil
WP 2/2015: Are indebted households poorer? Evidence from Slovakia 
Keywords: household net wealth, mortgage and non-mortgage debt, regional analysis 

Marian Vavra
WP 1/2015: Testing for normality with applications
Keywords: testing for normality; Anderson-Darling statistic; sieve bootstrap; weak dependence




Teresa Messner, Tibor Zavadil
OP 1/2014: Regional differences in household wealth across Slovakia
Keywords: Household Finance and Consumption Survey, Slovakia, regional analysis, assets,
liabilities, wealth, income, consumption

Jan Klacso
PP 1/2014: Macro Stress Testing Framework at the National Bank of Slovakia
Keywords: macro stress testing, banking sector, back testing

Michal Bencik
WP 2/2014: Dual regime fiscal multipliers in converging economies - a simplified STVAR approach

Keywords:V4 countries, fiscal multiplier, STVAR

Ludovit Odor, Judita Jurasekova Kucserova
WP 1/2014: Finding Yeti: More robust estimates of output gap in Slovakia
Keywords: output gap, real-time evaluation, fiscal policy, principal component analysis,
multivariate Kalman filter


Zuzana Siebertová, Matúš Senaj, Norbert Švarda and Jana Valachyová
WP 5/2013: To Work or Not to Work? Estimates of Labour Supply Elasticities
Keywords: labour supply elasticity, extensive margin, Heckman model, probit 

Tibor Lalinsky
WP 4/2013: Firm competitiveness determinants: results of a panel data analysis
Keywords: competitiveness, qualitative factors, firm-level data, panel data

Marián Vávra
WP 3/2013: Testing for linear and Markov switching DSGE models
Keywords: DSGE model, Markov-switching, Monte Carlo method, principal components, nonlinearity testing

Marián Vávra
WP 2/2013: Testing for non-linearity in multivariate stochastic processes
Keywords: non-linearity testing, principal component analysis, Monte Carlo method

Marián Vávra, Zacharias Psaradakis
WP 1/2013: Testing for marginal asymemetry of weakly dependent processes
Keywords: marginal symmetry, sample quantiles, Monte Carlo experiments


Martina Alexova
WP 6/2012: Inflation drivers in new EU members
Keywords: inflation, long run structural VARs, subset VEC model, mark-up, output gap, deficit, and commodity prices

Frantisek Hajnovič and Juraj Zeman
WP 5/2012: Fiscal Space in the  Euro zone
Keywords: fiscal space, fiscal policy, public debt, consolidation, critical debt level, EU

Marianna Cervena
WP 4/2012: Labor Cost Adjustment: Evidence From a Survey of Slovak Firms 
Keywords: nominal and real wage rigidity, alternative margins for labour cost cutting, survey evidence

Marianna Cervena
WP 3/2012: Base Wage Rigidities: Evidence From a Survey of Slovak Firms 
Keywords: nominal and real wage rigidity, survey evidence

Jarko Fidrmuc and Matus Senaj 
WP 2/2012:  Human Capital, Consumption and Housing Wealth in Transition
Keywords: consumption function, housing wealth effect, human capital, survey data

Juraj Zeman 
WP 1/2012:  Costs and benefits of Slovakia entering the euro area. A quantitative evaluation 
Keywords: Monetary union, costs and benefits, two-country DSGE


Matus Senaj and Milan Vyskrabka 
WP 2/2011:  European Taxes in a Laboratory  
Keywords: tax reform, DSGE model, euro area

Michal Bencik
WP 1/2011: Business cycle synchronisation between the V4 countries and the euro Area  (PDF  635 KB).
Keywords: optimum currency area, business cycle, autoregressive model, SVAR


Pavel Gertler
WP 3/2010: The wage curve: A panel data view of labour market segments (PDF  635 KB).  
Keywords:wage curve, panel data, unemployment elasticity of wages, wage flexibility, Slovakia, Phillips curve, microdata

Sandra Tatierska
WP 2/2010: Do Unit Labor Cost Drive Inflation in the Euro Area? (PDF  1 MB).  
Keywords:inflation, unit labor costs, NKPC, Euro area, VAR

Matus Senaj, Milan Vyskrabka and Juraj Zeman
WP 1/2010:  MUSE: Monetary Union and Slovak Economy model (PDF  1 MB).  
Keywords:Two-country model, Bayesian methods

Martin Filko, Stefan Kiss, Ludovit Odor and Matej Siskovic
DP 1/2010: Structural Policy Challenges in Slovakia (abstract, PDF  63 KB). Non-technical summary (PDF  402 KB). Full paper in Slovak: Ako sa najesť z grafov (10 receptov pre slovensku ekonomiku) (PDF, 2 000 KB)). 
Keywords: Policies, Outcome Indicators, Well-being, Economic Growth

Tibor Lalinsky
OP 3/2010: Business Competitiveness after Euro Adoption in Slovakia (PDF, 985 KB).
Keywords: Business competitiveness, Impact of euro adoption

Maria Marcanova and Ludovit Odor
OP 2/2010: Quarterly fiscal database 1996-2006 (for analytical purposes) (abstract, PDF, 53 KB; full paper in Slovak: Kvartálna fiškálna databáza 1996-2006 (na analytické účely) (PDF, 1 590 KB)). Database (XLS , 207 KB).
Keywords: Revenues, Expenditures, General government, Budgetary classification, Acrual methodology

Michal Bencik
OP 1/2010: The Impact of the Total Factor Productivity on Wages and Unit Labor Costs (abstract, PDF, 32 KB; full paper in Slovak: Vplyv celkovej produktivity faktorov na mzdy a jednotkové náklady práce (PDF, 466 KB))
Keywords: Production function, TFP, Share of wages on value added


Jan Zilinsky
WP 4/2009: What Determines Borrowing Costs of EU Countries (PDF, 1 000 KB )
Keywords: Public debt, Democratic capital, Long-term interest rates, Monetary unions, Financial crisis

Michal Horvath and Ludovit Odor
DP 2/2009: Making Fiscal Commitments Credible. Institutions for Responsible and Transparent Fiscal Policy in Slovakia (PDF, 976 KB )
Keywords: Fiscal rules, Fiscal council, Time inconsistency, Net worth

Judita Jurasekova Kucserova
DP 1/2009: Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Slovakia (PDF, 1 121 KB)
Keywords: Structural Shocks, Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, Sign Restrictions

Juraj Zeman and Matus Senaj
WP 3/2009: DSGE Model - Slovakia (PDF, 486 KB)
Keywords: General equilibrium model, Slovakia

Michal Bencik
WP 2/2009: The analysis of the effects of fiscal policy on business cycle - a SVAR application (abstract, PDF, 25 KB; full paper in Slovak: Analýza vplyvu fiškálnej politiky na hospodársky cyklus - aplikácia štruktúrneho VAR modelu (PDF, 442 KB))
Keywords: VAR model, structural shock, sign restrictions, fiscal shock

Judita Jurasekova Kucserova, Ludovit Odor, Matus Senaj and Juraj Zeman
PP 1/2009: Selected indicators of competitiveness: brief outline (PDF, 315 KB)

Michal Bencik
WP 1/2009: The equilibrium interest rate – theoretic concepts and applications (abstract, PDF, 72 KB; full paper in Slovak: Rovnovážna úroková miera - teoretické koncepty a aplikácie (PDF, 546 KB))
Keywords: equilibrium interest rate, IS curve, Ramsey model, Kalman filter


Pavel Gertler and Matus Senaj
WP 7/2008: Downward Wage Rigidities in Slovakia (PDF, 400 KB)
Keywords: Nominal and real wage rigidity, Slovakia

Sandra Tatierska
WP 6/2008: ULC Dynamics of Euro Area Countries and SR in the Long Run (PDF, 608 KB)
Keywords: ULC, competitiveness, convergence, cointegration, VEC

Michal Bencik a Sandra Tatierska
WP 5/2008: The impact of the Euro introduction on banking sector (abstract, PDF, 20 kB; full paper in Slovak:Vplyv zavedenia eura na bankový sektor, PDF, 311 kB)
Keywords: Banking sector, balance sheet, profit, Euro adoption, openness

Maria Marcanova and Ludovit Odor
WP 4/2008: Effective aggregate tax burden in Slovakia (abstract, PDF, 27 kB; full paper in SlovakEfektívne agregátne daňové zaťaženie v SR, PDF, 233 kB)
Keywords: Tax burden, tax freedom day, effective taxation, taxes

Tibor Lalinsky
WP 3/2008: Competitiveness Factors of Slovak Companies  (PDF, 553 kB)
Keywords: Company competitiveness, SWOT analysis, questionnaire survey

Michal Bencik
WP 2/2008: Methods for Detecting Disequilibrium in the Real Economy of Slovak Republic (abstract, PDF, 17 kB; full paper in Slovak: Metódy detekcie nerovnováhy v reálnej ekonomike SR, PDF, 384 kB)
Keywords: Gross domestic product, output gap, filter, production function, VAR

Juraj Zeman and Pavol Jurca
WP 1/2008: Macro Stress Testing of the Slovak Banking Sector (PDF, 183 kB)
Keywords: Macro stress testing, Credit risk, Slovakia


Suster, M., Arendas, M., Bencik, M., Gertler, P., Hajnovic, F., Kominkova, Z., Lalinsky, T., Nemec, M., Preisinger, D., Solanic, V., Strachotova, A., Tirpak, M., Tozser, T., Zeman, J
PP 1/2006: The Effects of Euro Adoption on the Slovak Economy. (PDF, 1.2 MB)
Keywords: euro adoption, euro, eurozone, ERM II, Big bang, dual pricing, dual circulation


Occasional papers elaborated by INSTITUTE OF MONETARY AND FINANCIAL STUDIES (former research oriented department of NBS) in years 1996 - 2004 are available here: IMFS papers